Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP seem to be marching into the Lok Sabha elections much ahead of their political opponents, in terms of popularity, credibility and resources — as per plan. And, yet, a series of recent events have signalled how the party and government are pushing through the final pieces in the electoral chessboard, some with speed, some with suddenness.
* On March 21, no sooner had the Lok Sabha election process began than Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, one of the most prominent Opposition faces, was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate. The probe into the Delhi excise policy case, in which Kejriwal was held, has been on for long. While the AAP chief had skipped multiple summons, the timing of the arrest raised eyebrows. Clearly, the BJP’s call, despite the Opposition’s united front on the issue, is that there wouldn’t be much of a political blowback.
* The Income Tax Department acted in a pending case against the Congress and froze a large number of the party’s bank accounts last month. The Congress held a press conference last week that its campaign would be hard hit and this was the BJP’s strategy to tilt elections in its favour.
The press meet coincided with the State Bank of India sharing the full data on electoral bonds purchased and redeemed by parties, as ordered by the Supreme Court. It showed the BJP to be the biggest beneficiary of the bonds, by far, and also showed that large donations came from corporates which also faced action by Central agencies.
* Four candidates given tickets by the BJP pulled out of the race soon after, including Pawan Singh (Asansol), Upendra Singh Rawat (Barabanki), Ranjan Bhatt (Vadodara) and Bhikhaji Thakor (Sabarkantha). While the withdrawal of Bhojpuri actor Pawan Singh followed controversy over the kind of movies and songs he had featured in, Bhatt pulled out after BJP leaders made open allegations against her. While the BJP has since named replacements for the other three seats, sources said it might still go with Singh in Asansol.
These were not the only “withdrawals”, incidentally. After a hint by the party at the last minute that they were unlikely to get tickets this time, BJP MPs such as Union minister V K Singh, former minister Jayant Sinha and cricketer-MP Gautam Gambir announced that they were exiting the electoral scene.
* After being repeatedly accused by its partners of not being accommodating enough, and losing allies over the years, the BJP has gone about re-collecting them. In the case of Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), Modi is believed to have himself pitched in, ignoring the Bihar Chief Minister’s constant jibes against him. In case of the TDP-JanaSena Party, talks dragged on for long, with the BJP eventually ceding on its demands, while negotiations with the BJD and Akali Dal finally came apart in the last mile.
The BJP even went out of its way to woo the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in Maharashtra, where the party is wary of an undercurrent against it, despite the MNS’s fragility.
Tickets to turncoats, including within hours of joining the BJP, has also left some resentment down the ranks as the party prides itself as being an “exception” in putting loyalty first when it comes to tickets. This rancour may not result in public protests though some senior leaders admit there is heartburn in a section.
On Kejriwal’s arrest, BJP leaders are confident that it will have little impact on the party’s prospects, including in the seven Lok Sabha seats of Delhi that the party had won by overwhelming margins last time. They argue that the corruption case against Kejriwal dents his “anti-corruption crusader image” and point to the fact that the street protests have been sporadic and scattered.
However, how this will play out depends on how successfully the Opposition and AAP – which have come together over the arrest – play the “sympathy” card.
In states where the party faces a strong opposition, particularly in the South, Kejriwal’s arrest could be a talking, if not a turning, point. The narrative of an overbearing Centre is easier to sell in these parts given Kejriwal’s arrest close on the heels of that of JMM leader Hemant Soren and BRS leader K Kavitha. When it comes to popularity and name recall, Kejriwal is far ahead of the other two and a section in the BJP is keeping its fingers crossed over how this will resonate.
Most leaders, however, are quick to add that the Modi dispensation has its ear much closer to the ground than that of the Vajpayee government, which misread its India Shining story of 2004. And that, contrary to the string of surprise moves recently, all is happening — more or less — to plan.